Saturday, April 28, 2012

Business Employment Dynamics: 1992:Q3-2011:Q2

Below, Corrections shows Business Employment Dynamics data from 1992:Q3-2011:Q2.  We index to 1992:Q3=1, from data originally in levels.

  • Gross job gains are the total people hired in a quarter (not subtracting losses).  U.S. generally has around 7.6 million total gains in a given quarter.  
  • Expansions are businesses that reported more jobs than last quarter.  U.S. generally has around 6.1 million firm expansions in a given quarter.
  • Openings are businesses that did not exist in the previous quarter.  U.S. generally has around 1.6 million firm openings in a given quarter.
  • Gross job losses are the total separations in a quarter (not adding gains).  U.S. generally has around 7.4 million total losses in a given quarter.
  • Contractions are businesses that reported fewer jobs than last quarter.  U.S. generally has around 6.0 million firm contractions in a given quarter.
  • Closings are businesses that reported last quarter but are no longer active.  U.S. generally has around 1.5 million closings in a given quarter.

We generally think of having both gross job gains and gross job losses high as creative destruction:  while not much is moving, there's a lot of churn in the economy, generally very good.  We generally think of having both gross job gains and gross job losses low as stagnation or sclerosis:  not much is flowing in the economy.

The 1990's and the Great Recession both show prominently in the figure of BED data, depicted graphically below (click to enlarge).

1 comment:

  1. It is amazing how much gross job losses and gains are in parallel. Certainly argues against the "good times raising all boats" hypothesis - that is, if a "positive" or "expansive" environment had generalized effects job losses should be inverse to gains