Thursday, November 29, 2012

Real GDP per Capita as Percent of Previous Peak: 1947Q1-2012Q3

Using the first revision of GDP up to 2012Q3, Corrections displays GDP/capita as percent of previous peak (click to enlarge).
In 2007Q4, real GDP/capita in 2005 dollars peaked at $44,005.  It reached a trough in 2009Q2 at $41,389, (94.1% of its previous peak) and is now at $43,352 (98.5% of its previous peak), growing at an annualized rate of 1.4% per year from trough to now (0.3571% quarterly) 

If the trend between trough to now continues, we will reach the previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2013 (by the first month of the fourth quarter, if we broke things down monthly), having deviated from our previous peak for six years.  The previous longest postwar peak was 2.25 years, in the nine quarter between and including 1981Q2 and 1983Q2.

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