Saturday, April 28, 2012

Business Employment Dynamics: 1992:Q3-2011:Q2

Below, Corrections shows Business Employment Dynamics data from 1992:Q3-2011:Q2.  We index to 1992:Q3=1, from data originally in levels.

  • Gross job gains are the total people hired in a quarter (not subtracting losses).  U.S. generally has around 7.6 million total gains in a given quarter.  
  • Expansions are businesses that reported more jobs than last quarter.  U.S. generally has around 6.1 million firm expansions in a given quarter.
  • Openings are businesses that did not exist in the previous quarter.  U.S. generally has around 1.6 million firm openings in a given quarter.
  • Gross job losses are the total separations in a quarter (not adding gains).  U.S. generally has around 7.4 million total losses in a given quarter.
  • Contractions are businesses that reported fewer jobs than last quarter.  U.S. generally has around 6.0 million firm contractions in a given quarter.
  • Closings are businesses that reported last quarter but are no longer active.  U.S. generally has around 1.5 million closings in a given quarter.

We generally think of having both gross job gains and gross job losses high as creative destruction:  while not much is moving, there's a lot of churn in the economy, generally very good.  We generally think of having both gross job gains and gross job losses low as stagnation or sclerosis:  not much is flowing in the economy.

The 1990's and the Great Recession both show prominently in the figure of BED data, depicted graphically below (click to enlarge).

Friday, April 20, 2012

US GDP, Log GDP, and Percent Deviations from Trend

GDP from 1947-2011, log GDP for the same period, and deviations from that log trend (which can be interpreted as percent deviations).