Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Employment Falls and Recoveries: By Industry

Below, Corrections depicts the loss and gain of jobs over the 2007-present business cycle.  We measured the industry peak (defined as the maximum employment between May 2007 and April 2009) and the industry trough (defined as minimum employment between May 2007 and December 2010).  This difference is the "millions of jobs gained between Jan-2007 to Industry 2010 Trough," and is negative for all industries, denoting a loss of employment.

We then calculated the gain from that trough by taking the present employment and subtracting the trough employment, and graphed the two against one another (click to enlarge). Finally, we included a -45 degree line.  Being above that line means expansion from trough past industry peak:  mining, leisure and hospitality, education and health, and professional and business services all succeeded in expanding past their old peaks.  Being below that line means failure to expand past your old peak.

Remarkably, only government (Federal, state and local) jobs fell both during the recession and the recovery, though both losses were fairly mild.  A second graph includes the same procedure for the entire economy (click to enlarge).  While we lost 8 million jobs, we have regained 6.4 million jobs, and with average net job growth in the last 12 months at about 182,000, we should reach that peak in 9 months following June 2013, around March 2014.

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