Showing posts with label Source: NBC News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Source: NBC News. Show all posts

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Autistic Teen Picks First Two NCAA Rounds Perfectly

NBC News report "Autistic Teen Picks First Two NCAA Rounds Perfectly" (March 25th, 2010) appears to report a non-event. It notes that an autistic individual picked the first two brackets perfectly. Corrections suggests that is expected to happen about 4 times every year.

In fact, he picked every game through the first two rounds correctly. The odds of anybody doing that? One in 13,460,000, according to BookofOdds.com. It's easier to win the lottery. Twice.


According to a survey, about 58 million people will fill out a bracket (more brackets may be filled out, as the average per participant is presumably greater than or equal to one). If the tournament is based purely on chance, we expect a one-in-thirteen-million event to happen four times, on average, each trial of 58 million. Indeed, the NCAA tournament is not composed of random events, and we should likely expect this to happen more than four times, not less.

Finally, while it's easier to win the lottery, according to NBC News, Corrections notes that the winning of the lottery is an everyday event.