Sunday, May 19, 2013

Employer-Sponsored Healthcare Premiums over Time

Below, Corrections depicts the average premium for employer-sponsored insurance, for either the family plan or the single plan, as according to the Kaiser Family Foundation's annual survey (click to enlarge).
These are the premiums paid by either employee or employer (the sum of the two) to an insurance company:  on average employees pay about 25% of any plan.  Below, we plot the percent increases (click to enlarge).
While insurance increases have been trending downward, the worst year-on-year increase has been 13% for families and 15% for singles, both in 2002.  The rate of increase has been declining, with a local peak in 2011 of 7.5% and 9.5% for singles and families, respectively.  A flashback to the premium increasing heydays of 2000-2005.  

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Detrended Productivity, Hours/Capita and GDP/Capita

Below, following and extending the data of Cociuba, Prescott and Ueberfeldt (Simona Cociuba's website), Corrections displays Productivity (Production/Hour Worked), GDP/Capita (Production/Person) and Hours/Capita (Total Hours/Persons) (click to enlarge).  Population is restricted to ages 16-64.

All series are detrended:  any straight horizontal line therefore represents "typical" constant exponential growth in growth variables (production/cap and productivity).
Particularly interestingly, productivity growth has been lower than trend, rather than higher.  Firms are not "squeezing out more per hour."  Or they are, but the rate of increase at which they are able to squeeze out more per hour is lower.

Unemployment Durations

Below, Corrections depicts the count of unemployed by duration of unemployment over time (click to enlarge).
We also depict the average and median length of unemployment over time (click to enlarge).  


Below, Corrections displays the three ways people have been losing their jobs over time, along with job openings (click to enlarge).
We also display the total number of separations and hires:  note the large gross flows generating small net flows.  JOLTS is measured more nosily than the typical CES and CPS employment and unemployment numbers (click to enlarge).

Friday, May 17, 2013

Disability Rolls-II

Below, Corrections displays the growth of Disability Rolls, to supplement the comparison below (click to enlarge):  as explained, we conservatively imputed (likely overstated) the growth of rolls in 2013 and their decline as a proportion of population.

Disability Rolls

Below, Corrections depicts the number of additional workers being paid by Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) [1] [2] (click to enlarge).  Note that Obama's 5th year in office (2013) has only 4 months of data:  we took the average of the four months of 2013 and multiplied by 12 to fill in 2013:  it is likely to be lower than that, as the trend has a clear downward trajectory.

The Deleveraging of American Households

Below, Corrections depicts the Debt Service Ratio and Financial Obligations Ratio as a percent of disposable personal income (click to enlarge).  Note the y-axis is non-standard.  The Debt Service Ratio is the amount paid on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt, while the Financial Obligations Ratio adds on automobiles, rental payments, homeowner's insurance, and property taxes.  Disposable personal income takes income, subtracts taxes, and adds transfers.

Who Holds Federal Debt?

Below, Corrections depicts the holders of Federal Debt in three categories:  debt held by the public, minus the Federal Reserve (which is normally counted in debt held by the public), the Federal Reserve, and intergovernmental holdings (primarily Social Security and similar programs).  Click to enlarge.
We depict the same thing in percentage terms (click to enlarge).  Note a modest error in the legend:  "Total" appears where it should not, while "Federal Reserve" is left blank.  Total should not exist: the total is always 1, while the light green line refers to Federal Reserve.

After the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve went from holding around 9% of Federal Debt to around 11%.  The recent increase from about 4.5% to 11% came on the heels of a large decrease during the crisis from 9% to 4.5%.

Data is from the Federal Reserve's H41 release and the Treasury's Bureau of Public Debt data.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Average Annualized Deficit of Past 12 Months

Below, Corrections depicts an annualized average Federal Deficit by taking the surplus or deficit in any given trailing twelve month window (click to enlarge).

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries

Below, Corrections depicts the major foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities by major country grouping (click to enlarge).

Core vs. Headline Inflation: Oct 2007-March 2013

Below, Corrections depicts core and headline inflation from October 2007 to March 2013.  This medium run shows also what the long run shows:  headline inflation generally circulates around core inflation, but is more volatile (click to enlarge).

P/E Ratio Portfolios

Below, Corrections depicts ten different portfolios, organized based on P/E ratios.  For instance, one takes the lowest 10% of P/E ratios and puts them in one portfolio, and looks at the average return of that portfolio, and then takes the next 10% and puts them in another.

We then compare the returns, organized by decade (click to enlarge).

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Delinquent Bank Loans

Below, Corrections depicts delinquent bank loans and their types over time (click to enlarge).
We also depict the loans as a fraction of their maximum, to show clearly the rise and continuing fall of delinquencies (click to enlarge).

TIPS Yield Spreads

Below, Corrections depicts different Treasury-TIPS yield spreads.  The plots take the yield of a regular treasury security of maturity X and subtracting the yield of an inflation-indexed treasury security of maturity X (click to enlarge).

The plot shows not only a remarkable consistency in inflation expectations but the dramatic flight to liquidity during the 2008 crisis.

Changes in Government Purchases and Investment as a Percent of GDP: By Presidency

Below, Corrections depicts the change in government expenditure as a fraction of GDP by President (click to enlarge).  (To be clear, if your predecessor ended with a share of 18%, and your first quarter was 18.1%, then this graph would show 0.1 for your first quarter).