James Hamilton's work [1], [2], [3], [4] comes highly recommended by Corrections. Most interestingly comes the observation that ten of the last eleven recessions have been preceded by oil price increases. Below, see a graphic describing oil prices and their trend (click to enlarge).
More cogently, the deviations from HP-filtered oil prices compared against recessions (click to enlarge)
Do they have a suggestion about the relationship? I could imagine oil prices being a driving force for recession since oil prices are such a vital input. But it could also be that when a recession is looming OPEC predicts lower demand and pulls back supply.
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